Ellipsoidal Prediction Regions for Multivariate Uncertainty Characterization

While substantial advances are observed in probabilistic forecasting for power system operation and electricity market applications, most approaches are still developed in a univariate framework. This prevents from informing about the interdependence structure among locations, lead times and variables of interest. Such dependencies are key in a large share of operational problems involving renewable power generation, load and electricity prices for instance. The few methods that account for dependencies translate to sampling scenarios based on given marginals and dependence structures. However, for classes of decision-making problems based on robust, interval chance-constrained optimization, necessary inputs take the form of polyhedra or ellipsoids. Consequently, we propose a systematic framework to readily generate and evaluate ellipsoidal prediction regions, with predefined probability and minimum volume. A skill score is proposed for quantitative assessment of the quality of prediction ellipsoids. A set of experiments is used to illustrate the discrimination ability of the proposed scoring rule for misspecification of ellipsoidal prediction regions. Application results based on three datasets with wind, PV power and electricity prices, allow us to assess the skill of the resulting ellipsoidal prediction regions, in terms of calibration, sharpness and overall skill.Comment: 8 pages, 7 Figures, Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Power System

Optimal sizing of battery energy storage for micro-grid operation management using a new improved bat algorithm

a b s t r a c t In recent years, due to large integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) like wind turbine and photovoltaic unit into the Micro-Grid (MG), the necessity of Battery Energy Storage (BES) has increased dramatically. The BES has several benefits and advantages in the MG-based applications such as short term power supply, power quality improvement, facilitating integration of RES, ancillary service and arbitrage. This paper presents the cost-based formulation to determine the optimal size of the BES in the operation management of MG. Also, some restrictions, i.e. power capacity of Distributed Generators (DGs), power and energy capacity of BES, charge/discharge efficiency of BES, operating reserve and load demand satisfaction should be considered as well. The suggested problem is a complicated optimization problem, the complexity of which is increased by considering the above constraints. Therefore, a robust and strong optimization algorithm is required to solve it. Herein, this paper proposes a new evolutionary technique named improved bat algorithm that is used for developing corrective strategies and to perform least cost dispatches. The performance of the approach is evaluated by one grid-connected low voltage MG where the optimal size of BES is determined professionally

Development of the equivalent Great Britain 36-zone power system for frequency control studies

This paper presents a dynamic model of the equivalent Great Britain (GB) 36-zone power system, which can be used for reliable and realistic assessment of emerging load frequency control mechanisms. Flexible architecture of the presented dynamic test system permits a broad range of security of supply and small-signal stability studies for design of future power grids. It can be particularly useful for academic research, but also for undertaking feasibility studies in power industries. The proposed dynamic test system, which is obtained through network reduction of the original full-scale GB transmission power system developed by National Grid Electricity System Operator (NGESO) Company, provides detailed information about the GB power system. In this regard, the required data and modelling approaches to develop the 36-zone system are provided in detail. The presented dynamic test system represents the system topology, impedance characteristics and electromechanical oscillations of the original GB power system however, it is not an exact equivalent of the master GB system. Illustrative dynamic models of the key system components, including synchronous generators, automatic voltage regulators, power system stabilizers, hydro and steam turbines models along with speed governing systems are presented. Dynamic behavior of 36-zone test system in response to infeed loss contingencies is investigated. Particularly, the impact of changes in the system inertia on the system electromechanical modes is examined using the modal analysis approach. In this context, the mode shape concept is employed to determine dominant generators and contribution of different zones in the low frequency oscillations. Moreover, time-domain simulations are undertaken to validate the modal analysis results. Additionally, the condition of different zones from the viewpoint of frequency nadir and maximum rate of change of frequency for various contingencies and extreme cases are examined.© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Harmonic Signature-Based One-Class Classifier for Islanding Detection in Microgrids

This article presents a new passive islanding detection technique in MGs that uses locally measured voltage signals at the PoC of DERs. The proposed method distinguishes islanding events from normal/non-islanding conditions by utilizing superimposed harmonic spectra extracted through a full-cycle discrete Fourier transform. Our solution utilizes a machine-learning-based one-class classifier to define and adjust thresholds for full harmonic spectra. Unlike other methods, our approach does not require data synchronization or communication infrastructure, nor does it suffer from common errors that often arise in current transformers. Moreover, our design is compatible with distributed and decentralized control strategies, as it relies solely on local voltage measurements at the PoC. Another advantage of this method is its low sampling frequency requirement, in the range of 1 kHz, making it cost-effective and implementable in most existing systems. In a comprehensive evaluation of a typical MG test system that included synchronous and inverter-based DERs, the proposed scheme demonstrated exceptional performance. Specifically, the scheme was able to detect 99.06% of different islanding events within the training range, with a detection time of just 10 to 21 ms. Additionally, the scheme remained 100% stable during various normal conditions, short-circuit faults, load changes, voltage changes, capacitor switching, and frequency changes.©2023 Authors. Published by IEEE. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Disturbance size estimation in Great Britain power system including combined cycle gas turbine power stations

With the substantial popularity of combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants in the nowadays power systems, special care must be taken to regulate frequency due to unique frequency response characteristic of the full-loaded CCGT units. This unique feature is documented in the literature; however, its effect on determining frequency response of the power systems was not addressed in detail. This study proposes a new analytical method to achieve a more accurate estimated size of a loss-of-generation disturbance. This method considers demand-side power deviations and transmission lines power loss as well as unique frequency response of the CCGT units following the event. Firstly, it is exposed that there is an approximately linear relationship between power and frequency deviations of these plants in a real-world power system despite the complexity of the CCGT model. This relationship may be represented by a negative droop gain. Next, the derived CCGT’s linear characteristic is formulated in the disturbance size estimation process. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed modifications is demonstrated through extensive simulations on a 36-zone Great Britain equivalent test system.© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed